⚽Kickabout
⌕
Group stage · SoFi Stadium · June 26, 2026
turkiye flagTurkiye
3–2
Full time
United Statesunited-states flag
📌
What we said before kick-off. Our pre-match forecast is kept below for transparency — final score was TUR 3–2 USA.
WHO FANS ARE BACKING
How the crowd called it, frozen at kick-off.
turkiye flagTurkiye31%
united-states flagUnited StatesFans’ pick · 69%
Fans: TUR 31%USA 69%
Our model backs United States
The crowd agrees with the model.

United States are favoured

United States have about a 37% chance of winning in 90 minutes.

36
28
37
TUR windrawUSA win
⚽ Goals
A. Guler 10'
B. Yilmaz 31'
K. Ayhan 90'
3' A. Trusty
49' S. Berhalter
turkiye flagTUR3–2USAunited-states flag
48%Possession52%
3.21Expected goals (xG)2.01
9Shots18
3Shots on target7
2Corners9
77%Pass accuracy85%
turkiye flagTurkiye
Form · last 3
WLL
united-states flagUnited States
Form · last 3
LWW
Head to head
TUR 3 · 1 draw · 2 USA
6 all-time meetings · last Jun 25, 2026
Season form compared
1.0Goals per game2.7
1.7Goals conceded / game1.3
0%Clean sheets33%
33%Win rate67%

Averages over each team’s last 3 completed matches.

United States are favoured

United States have about a 37% chance of winning in 90 minutes.

36
28
37
TUR windrawUSA win

What's behind it

TURFactorUSA
1852Team rating
Elo — rises by beating strong teams
1781
#27World ranking
Official FIFA rank
#15
-11Form so far
How they've played this tournament
+16
-5Squad firepower
Goals in the squad vs the field
+2
0Home boost
Edge for the three host nations
+40
1836Our rating
Everything above, combined
1839

Win probability from the Elo expected score on the adjusted rating, with a draw term that shrinks as the gap grows. A transparent heuristic — not betting advice.

Star men to watch

Post-match reads

Turkiye stun the hosts in a five-goal classic
Arda Güler ran the show as Turkiye came from behind to beat the United States in the group-stage shock so far.