Kickabout
Round of 32 · SoFi Stadium · June 29, 2026
south-africa flagSouth Africa
0–1
Full time
Canadacanada flag
📌
What we said before kick-off. Our pre-match forecast is kept below for transparency — final score was RSA 0–1 CAN.
WHO FANS ARE BACKING
How the crowd called it, frozen at kick-off.
south-africa flagSouth Africa22%
canada flagCanadaFans’ pick · 78%
Fans: RSA 22%CAN 78%
Our model backs Canada
The crowd agrees with the model.

Canada are favoured

Canada have about a 79% chance of winning in 90 minutes.

13
8
79
RSA windrawCAN win
⚽ Goals
90' Stephen Eustaquio
south-africa flagRSA0–1CANcanada flag
58%Possession42%
0.13Expected goals (xG)1.32
6Shots12
1Shots on target7
1Corners4
85%Pass accuracy78%
south-africa flagSouth Africa
Form · last 4
LWDL
canada flagCanada
Form · last 4
WLWD
Head to head
RSA 1 · 0 draws · 1 CAN
2 all-time meetings · last Jun 28, 2026
Season form compared
0.5Goals per game2.3
1.0Goals conceded / game0.8
25%Clean sheets50%
25%Win rate50%

Averages over each team’s last 4 completed matches.

Canada are favoured

Canada have about a 79% chance of winning in 90 minutes.

13
8
79
RSA windrawCAN win

What's behind it

RSAFactorCAN
1559Team rating
Elo — rises by beating strong teams
1764
#54World ranking
Official FIFA rank
#32
-4Form so far
How they've played this tournament
+8
-12Squad firepower
Goals in the squad vs the field
+4
0Home boost
Edge for the three host nations
+40
1543Our rating
Everything above, combined
1816

Win probability from the Elo expected score on the adjusted rating, with a draw term that shrinks as the gap grows. A transparent heuristic — not betting advice.

Star men to watch