Kickabout
Group stage · Estadio Akron · June 27, 2026
uruguay flagUruguay
0–1
Full time
Spainspain flag
📌
What we said before kick-off. Our pre-match forecast is kept below for transparency — final score was URU 0–1 ESP.
WHO FANS ARE BACKING
How the crowd called it, frozen at kick-off.
uruguay flagUruguay13%
spain flagSpainFans’ pick · 87%
Fans: URU 13%ESP 87%
Our model backs Spain
The crowd agrees with the model.

Spain are favoured

Spain have about a 84% chance of winning in 90 minutes.

10
6
84
URU windrawESP win
⚽ Goals
42' A. Baena
uruguay flagURU0–1ESPspain flag
33%Possession67%
0.20Expected goals (xG)0.86
5Shots6
1Shots on target1
1Corners6
76%Pass accuracy89%
uruguay flagUruguay
Form · last 3
LDD
spain flagSpain
Form · last 3
WWD
Head to head
URU 0 · 5 draws · 6 ESP
11 all-time meetings · last Jun 26, 2026
Season form compared
1.0Goals per game1.7
1.3Goals conceded / game0.0
0%Clean sheets100%
0%Win rate67%

Averages over each team’s last 3 completed matches.

Spain are favoured

Spain have about a 84% chance of winning in 90 minutes.

10
6
84
URU windrawESP win

What's behind it

URUFactorESP
1841Team rating
Elo — rises by beating strong teams
2144
#19World ranking
Official FIFA rank
#3
-12Form so far
How they've played this tournament
+6
-10Squad firepower
Goals in the squad vs the field
-2
0Home boost
Edge for the three host nations
0
1819Our rating
Everything above, combined
2148

Win probability from the Elo expected score on the adjusted rating, with a draw term that shrinks as the gap grows. A transparent heuristic — not betting advice.

Star men to watch