⚽Kickabout
Group stage · SoFi Stadium · June 13, 2026
united-states flagUnited States
4–1
Full time
Paraguayparaguay flag
📌
What we said before kick-off. Our pre-match forecast is kept below for transparency — final score was USA 4–1 PAR.
WHO FANS ARE BACKING
How the crowd called it, frozen at kick-off.
united-states flagUnited StatesFans’ pick · 77%
paraguay flagParaguay23%
Fans: USA 77%PAR 23%
Our model backs United States
The crowd agrees with the model.

United States are favoured

United States have about a 45% chance of winning in 90 minutes.

45
23
32
USA windrawPAR win
⚽ Goals
D. Bobadilla 7'
F. Balogun 31'
F. Balogun 45'
G. Reyna 90'
73' Mauricio
united-states flagUSA4–1PARparaguay flag
65%Possession35%
1.42Expected goals (xG)0.54
16Shots9
6Shots on target1
3Corners1
85%Pass accuracy73%
united-states flagUnited States
Form · last 3
LWW
paraguay flagParaguay
Form · last 3
DWL
Head to head
USA 6 · 2 draws · 2 PAR
10 all-time meetings · last Jun 12, 2026
Season form compared
2.7Goals per game0.7
1.3Goals conceded / game1.3
33%Clean sheets67%
67%Win rate33%

Averages over each team’s last 3 completed matches.

United States are favoured

United States have about a 45% chance of winning in 90 minutes.

45
23
32
USA windrawPAR win

What's behind it

USAFactorPAR
1781Team rating
Elo — rises by beating strong teams
1815
#15World ranking
Official FIFA rank
#37
+16Form so far
How they've played this tournament
-6
+2Squad firepower
Goals in the squad vs the field
-15
+40Home boost
Edge for the three host nations
0
1839Our rating
Everything above, combined
1794

Win probability from the Elo expected score on the adjusted rating, with a draw term that shrinks as the gap grows. A transparent heuristic — not betting advice.

Star men to watch

united-states flagUnited States
paraguay flagParaguay