⚽Kickabout
Group stage · Lumen Field · June 20, 2026
united-states flagUnited States
2–0
Full time
Australiaaustralia flag
📌
What we said before kick-off. Our pre-match forecast is kept below for transparency — final score was USA 2–0 AUS.
WHO FANS ARE BACKING
How the crowd called it, frozen at kick-off.
united-states flagUnited StatesFans’ pick · 88%
australia flagAustralia12%
Fans: USA 88%AUS 12%
Our model backs United States
The crowd agrees with the model.

United States are favoured

United States have about a 46% chance of winning in 90 minutes.

46
22
32
USA windrawAUS win
⚽ Goals
C. Burgess 11'
A. Freeman 43'
united-states flagUSA2–0AUSaustralia flag
62%Possession38%
1.08Expected goals (xG)0.35
10Shots5
2Shots on target2
7Corners4
85%Pass accuracy71%
united-states flagUnited States
Form · last 3
LWW
australia flagAustralia
Form · last 3
DLW
Head to head
USA 3 · 1 draw · 1 AUS
5 all-time meetings · last Jun 19, 2026
Season form compared
2.7Goals per game0.7
1.3Goals conceded / game0.7
33%Clean sheets67%
67%Win rate33%

Averages over each team’s last 3 completed matches.

United States are favoured

United States have about a 46% chance of winning in 90 minutes.

46
22
32
USA windrawAUS win

What's behind it

USAFactorAUS
1781Team rating
Elo — rises by beating strong teams
1800
#15World ranking
Official FIFA rank
#28
+16Form so far
How they've played this tournament
-2
+2Squad firepower
Goals in the squad vs the field
-10
+40Home boost
Edge for the three host nations
0
1839Our rating
Everything above, combined
1788

Win probability from the Elo expected score on the adjusted rating, with a draw term that shrinks as the gap grows. A transparent heuristic — not betting advice.

Star men to watch

united-states flagUnited States
australia flagAustralia