Kickabout
Group stage · Arrowhead Stadium · June 26, 2026
tunisia flagTunisia
1–3
Full time
Netherlandsnetherlands flag
📌
What we said before kick-off. Our pre-match forecast is kept below for transparency — final score was TUN 1–3 NED.
WHO FANS ARE BACKING
How the crowd called it, frozen at kick-off.
tunisia flagTunisia8%
netherlands flagNetherlandsFans’ pick · 92%
Fans: TUN 8%NED 92%
Our model backs Netherlands
The crowd agrees with the model.

Netherlands are favoured

Netherlands have about a 93% chance of winning in 90 minutes.

4
3
93
TUN windrawNED win
⚽ Goals
H. Mastouri 54'
3' E. Skhiri
7' B. Brobbey
62' J. P. van Hecke
tunisia flagTUN1–3NEDnetherlands flag
29%Possession71%
0.62Expected goals (xG)1.85
10Shots20
4Shots on target7
4Corners6
77%Pass accuracy93%
tunisia flagTunisia
Form · last 3
LLL
netherlands flagNetherlands
Form · last 3
WWD
Head to head
TUN 0 · 2 draws · 2 NED
4 all-time meetings · last Jun 25, 2026
Season form compared
0.7Goals per game3.3
4.0Goals conceded / game1.3
0%Clean sheets0%
0%Win rate67%

Averages over each team’s last 3 completed matches.

Netherlands are favoured

Netherlands have about a 93% chance of winning in 90 minutes.

4
3
93
TUN windrawNED win

What's behind it

TUNFactorNED
1562Team rating
Elo — rises by beating strong teams
1980
#58World ranking
Official FIFA rank
#7
-35Form so far
How they've played this tournament
+25
-17Squad firepower
Goals in the squad vs the field
+9
0Home boost
Edge for the three host nations
0
1510Our rating
Everything above, combined
2014

Win probability from the Elo expected score on the adjusted rating, with a draw term that shrinks as the gap grows. A transparent heuristic — not betting advice.

Star men to watch