Kickabout
Group stage · Estadio BBVA · June 21, 2026
tunisia flagTunisia
0–4
Full time
Japanjapan flag
📌
What we said before kick-off. Our pre-match forecast is kept below for transparency — final score was TUN 0–4 JPN.
WHO FANS ARE BACKING
How the crowd called it, frozen at kick-off.
tunisia flagTunisia11%
japan flagJapanFans’ pick · 89%
Fans: TUN 11%JPN 89%
Our model backs Japan
The crowd agrees with the model.

Japan are favoured

Japan have about a 89% chance of winning in 90 minutes.

6
4
89
TUN windrawJPN win
⚽ Goals
4' D. Kamada
31' A. Ueda
69' J. Ito
83' A. Ueda
tunisia flagTUN0–4JPNjapan flag
38%Possession62%
0.05Expected goals (xG)2.13
2Shots11
0Shots on target5
3Corners5
80%Pass accuracy89%
tunisia flagTunisia
Form · last 3
LLL
japan flagJapan
Form · last 3
DWD
Head to head
TUN 1 · 0 draws · 5 JPN
6 all-time meetings · last Jun 20, 2026
Season form compared
0.7Goals per game2.3
4.0Goals conceded / game1.0
0%Clean sheets33%
0%Win rate33%

Averages over each team’s last 3 completed matches.

Japan are favoured

Japan have about a 89% chance of winning in 90 minutes.

6
4
89
TUN windrawJPN win

What's behind it

TUNFactorJPN
1562Team rating
Elo — rises by beating strong teams
1910
#58World ranking
Official FIFA rank
#17
-35Form so far
How they've played this tournament
+11
-17Squad firepower
Goals in the squad vs the field
-1
0Home boost
Edge for the three host nations
0
1510Our rating
Everything above, combined
1920

Win probability from the Elo expected score on the adjusted rating, with a draw term that shrinks as the gap grows. A transparent heuristic — not betting advice.

Star men to watch

tunisia flagTunisia
japan flagJapan