⚽Kickabout
Group stage · Estadio BBVA · June 15, 2026
sweden flagSweden
5–1
Full time
Tunisiatunisia flag
📌
What we said before kick-off. Our pre-match forecast is kept below for transparency — final score was SWE 5–1 TUN.
WHO FANS ARE BACKING
How the crowd called it, frozen at kick-off.
sweden flagSwedenFans’ pick · 88%
tunisia flagTunisia12%
Fans: SWE 88%TUN 12%
Our model backs Sweden
The crowd agrees with the model.

Sweden are favoured

Sweden have about a 73% chance of winning in 90 minutes.

73
10
17
SWE windrawTUN win
⚽ Goals
Y. Ayari 7'
A. Isak 30'
V. Gyokeres 59'
M. Svanberg 84'
Y. Ayari 90'
43' O. Rekik
sweden flagSWE5–1TUNtunisia flag
49%Possession51%
1.33Expected goals (xG)0.28
13Shots6
7Shots on target2
4Corners2
78%Pass accuracy79%
sweden flagSweden
Form · last 3
DLW
tunisia flagTunisia
Form · last 3
LLL
Head to head
SWE 3 · 1 draw · 1 TUN
5 all-time meetings · last Jun 14, 2026
Season form compared
2.3Goals per game0.7
2.3Goals conceded / game4.0
0%Clean sheets0%
33%Win rate0%

Averages over each team’s last 3 completed matches.

Sweden are favoured

Sweden have about a 73% chance of winning in 90 minutes.

73
10
17
SWE windrawTUN win

What's behind it

SWEFactorTUN
1742Team rating
Elo — rises by beating strong teams
1562
#36World ranking
Official FIFA rank
#58
-2Form so far
How they've played this tournament
-35
-12Squad firepower
Goals in the squad vs the field
-17
0Home boost
Edge for the three host nations
0
1728Our rating
Everything above, combined
1510

Win probability from the Elo expected score on the adjusted rating, with a draw term that shrinks as the gap grows. A transparent heuristic — not betting advice.

Star men to watch

sweden flagSweden
tunisia flagTunisia