⚽Kickabout
⌕
Group stage · Mercedes-Benz Stadium · June 22, 2026
spain flagSpain
4–0
Full time
Saudi Arabiasaudi-arabia flag
📌
What we said before kick-off. Our pre-match forecast is kept below for transparency — final score was ESP 4–0 KSA.
WHO FANS ARE BACKING
How the crowd called it, frozen at kick-off.
spain flagSpainFans’ pick · 92%
saudi-arabia flagSaudi Arabia8%
Fans: ESP 92%KSA 8%
Our model backs Spain
The crowd agrees with the model.

Spain are favoured

Spain have about a 96% chance of winning in 90 minutes.

96
2
2
ESP windrawKSA win
⚽ Goals
Lamine Yamal 10'
M. Oyarzabal 21'
M. Oyarzabal 24'
H. Tambakti 49'
spain flagESP4–0KSAsaudi-arabia flag
67%Possession33%
2.30Expected goals (xG)0.14
22Shots3
8Shots on target1
6Corners1
92%Pass accuracy81%
spain flagSpain
Form · last 3
WWD
saudi-arabia flagSaudi Arabia
Form · last 3
DLD
Head to head
ESP 4 · 0 draws · 0 KSA
4 all-time meetings · last Jun 21, 2026
Season form compared
1.7Goals per game0.3
0.0Goals conceded / game1.7
100%Clean sheets33%
67%Win rate0%

Averages over each team’s last 3 completed matches.

Spain are favoured

Spain have about a 96% chance of winning in 90 minutes.

96
2
2
ESP windrawKSA win

What's behind it

ESPFactorKSA
2144Team rating
Elo — rises by beating strong teams
1596
#3World ranking
Official FIFA rank
#59
+6Form so far
How they've played this tournament
-25
-2Squad firepower
Goals in the squad vs the field
-4
0Home boost
Edge for the three host nations
0
2148Our rating
Everything above, combined
1567

Win probability from the Elo expected score on the adjusted rating, with a draw term that shrinks as the gap grows. A transparent heuristic — not betting advice.

Star men to watch