Kickabout
Group stage · Estadio BBVA · June 25, 2026
📌
What we said before kick-off. Our pre-match forecast is kept below for transparency — final score was RSA 1–0 KOR.
WHO FANS ARE BACKING
How the crowd called it, frozen at kick-off.
south-africa flagSouth Africa12%
south-korea flagSouth KoreaFans’ pick · 88%
Fans: RSA 12%KOR 88%
Our model backs South Korea
The crowd agrees with the model.

South Korea are favoured

South Korea have about a 67% chance of winning in 90 minutes.

20
12
67
RSA windrawKOR win
⚽ Goals
T. Maseko 63'
south-africa flagRSA1–0KORsouth-korea flag
32%Possession68%
1.10Expected goals (xG)1.00
13Shots8
4Shots on target3
4Corners6
82%Pass accuracy89%
south-africa flagSouth Africa
Form · last 4
LWDL
south-korea flagSouth Korea
Form · last 3
LLW
Head to head
RSA 1 · 0 draws · 0 KOR
1 all-time meeting · last Jun 24, 2026
Season form compared
0.5Goals per game0.7
1.0Goals conceded / game1.0
25%Clean sheets0%
25%Win rate33%

Averages over each team’s last 3 completed matches.

South Korea are favoured

South Korea have about a 67% chance of winning in 90 minutes.

20
12
67
RSA windrawKOR win

What's behind it

RSAFactorKOR
1559Team rating
Elo — rises by beating strong teams
1723
#54World ranking
Official FIFA rank
#31
-4Form so far
How they've played this tournament
-9
-12Squad firepower
Goals in the squad vs the field
+7
0Home boost
Edge for the three host nations
0
1543Our rating
Everything above, combined
1721

Win probability from the Elo expected score on the adjusted rating, with a draw term that shrinks as the gap grows. A transparent heuristic — not betting advice.

Star men to watch

south-africa flagSouth Africa
south-korea flagSouth Korea