⚽Kickabout
⌕
Group stage · BMO Field · June 27, 2026
senegal flagSenegal
5–0
Full time
Iraqiraq flag
📌
What we said before kick-off. Our pre-match forecast is kept below for transparency — final score was SEN 5–0 IRQ.
WHO FANS ARE BACKING
How the crowd called it, frozen at kick-off.
senegal flagSenegalFans’ pick · 90%
iraq flagIraq10%
Fans: SEN 90%IRQ 10%
Our model backs Senegal
The crowd agrees with the model.

Senegal are favoured

Senegal have about a 81% chance of winning in 90 minutes.

81
7
12
SEN windrawIRQ win
⚽ Goals
H. Diarra 4'
I. Sarr 56'
P. Gueye 59'
P. Gueye 71'
I. Ndiaye 82'
senegal flagSEN5–0IRQiraq flag
69%Possession31%
3.10Expected goals (xG)0.18
28Shots6
12Shots on target1
12Corners3
88%Pass accuracy69%
senegal flagSenegal
Form · last 3
WLL
iraq flagIraq
Form · last 3
LLL
Head to head
SEN 1 · 0 draws · 0 IRQ
1 all-time meeting · last Jun 26, 2026
Season form compared
2.7Goals per game0.3
2.0Goals conceded / game4.0
33%Clean sheets0%
33%Win rate0%

Averages over each team’s last 3 completed matches.

Senegal are favoured

Senegal have about a 81% chance of winning in 90 minutes.

81
7
12
SEN windrawIRQ win

What's behind it

SENFactorIRQ
1842Team rating
Elo — rises by beating strong teams
1561
#18World ranking
Official FIFA rank
#63
-28Form so far
How they've played this tournament
-34
+4Squad firepower
Goals in the squad vs the field
-6
0Home boost
Edge for the three host nations
0
1818Our rating
Everything above, combined
1521

Win probability from the Elo expected score on the adjusted rating, with a draw term that shrinks as the gap grows. A transparent heuristic — not betting advice.

Star men to watch