⚽Kickabout
⌕
Group stage · NRG Stadium · June 24, 2026
portugal flagPortugal
5–0
Full time
Uzbekistanuzbekistan flag
📌
What we said before kick-off. Our pre-match forecast is kept below for transparency — final score was POR 5–0 UZB.
WHO FANS ARE BACKING
How the crowd called it, frozen at kick-off.
portugal flagPortugalFans’ pick · 90%
uzbekistan flagUzbekistan10%
Fans: POR 90%UZB 10%
Our model backs Portugal
The crowd agrees with the model.

Portugal are favoured

Portugal have about a 90% chance of winning in 90 minutes.

90
4
6
POR windrawUZB win
⚽ Goals
C. Ronaldo 6'
N. Mendes 17'
C. Ronaldo 39'
A. Nematov 60'
R. Leao 87'
portugal flagPOR5–0UZBuzbekistan flag
66%Possession34%
2.61Expected goals (xG)0.24
17Shots7
9Shots on target2
3Corners2
90%Pass accuracy80%
portugal flagPortugal
Form · last 3
DWD
uzbekistan flagUzbekistan
Form · last 3
LLL
Head to head
POR 1 · 0 draws · 0 UZB
1 all-time meeting · last Jun 23, 2026
Season form compared
2.0Goals per game0.7
0.3Goals conceded / game3.7
67%Clean sheets0%
33%Win rate0%

Averages over each team’s last 3 completed matches.

Portugal are favoured

Portugal have about a 90% chance of winning in 90 minutes.

90
4
6
POR windrawUZB win

What's behind it

PORFactorUZB
1990Team rating
Elo — rises by beating strong teams
1631
#8World ranking
Official FIFA rank
#57
+8Form so far
How they've played this tournament
-35
+20Squad firepower
Goals in the squad vs the field
+1
0Home boost
Edge for the three host nations
0
2018Our rating
Everything above, combined
1597

Win probability from the Elo expected score on the adjusted rating, with a draw term that shrinks as the gap grows. A transparent heuristic — not betting advice.

Star men to watch