Kickabout
Round of 32 · BMO Field · July 3, 2026
WHO FANS ARE BACKING
The crowd’s call — and how our model compares.
portugal flagPortugalFans’ pick · 70%
croatia flagCroatia30%
Fans: POR 70%CRO 30%
Our model backs Portugal
The crowd agrees with the model.

Portugal are favoured

Portugal have about a 57% chance of winning in 90 minutes.

57
17
26
POR windrawCRO win

Bookmaker odds

Compare the books — best price for each result is highlighted.

BookmakerPORDrawCRO
10Bet1.763.454.70
1xBet1.803.685.29
Bet3651.753.505.00
Betano1.853.554.90
Betfair1.733.504.75
BetVictor1.753.604.75
Dafabet1.853.504.70
Marathonbet1.773.625.20
Pinnacle1.793.674.88
SBO1.793.124.15
Unibet1.783.504.90
William Hill1.753.404.80

Odds via API-Football. Shown for information — not betting advice.

No confirmed XI yet — most likely teams based on recent selection.

portugal flag
Portugal
4-2-3-1
Most likely XI
Croatia
4-2-3-1
croatia flag
1Costa20Cancelo3Dias13Veiga25Mendes21Neves23Vitinha18Neto8Fernandes11Félix7Ronaldo1Livaković2Stanišić6Šutalo3Pongračić14Perišić10Modrić8Kovačić13Vlašić17Sučić16Baturina11Budimir
portugal flagPortugal
Form · last 3
DWD
croatia flagCroatia
Form · last 3
WWL
Head to head
POR 7 · 2 draws · 1 CRO
10 all-time meetings · last Nov 18, 2024
Season form compared
2.0Goals per game1.7
0.3Goals conceded / game1.7
67%Clean sheets33%
33%Win rate67%

Averages over each team’s last 3 completed matches.

Portugal are favoured

Portugal have about a 57% chance of winning in 90 minutes.

57
17
26
POR windrawCRO win

What's behind it

PORFactorCRO
1990Team rating
Elo — rises by beating strong teams
1905
#8World ranking
Official FIFA rank
#13
+8Form so far
How they've played this tournament
-9
+20Squad firepower
Goals in the squad vs the field
+9
0Home boost
Edge for the three host nations
0
2018Our rating
Everything above, combined
1905

Win probability from the Elo expected score on the adjusted rating, with a draw term that shrinks as the gap grows. A transparent heuristic — not betting advice.

Star men to watch