Kickabout
Group stage · MetLife Stadium · June 23, 2026
norway flagNorway
3–2
Full time
Senegalsenegal flag
📌
What we said before kick-off. Our pre-match forecast is kept below for transparency — final score was NOR 3–2 SEN.
WHO FANS ARE BACKING
How the crowd called it, frozen at kick-off.
norway flagNorwayFans’ pick · 79%
senegal flagSenegal21%
Fans: NOR 79%SEN 21%
Our model backs Norway
The crowd agrees with the model.

Norway are favoured

Norway have about a 58% chance of winning in 90 minutes.

58
16
25
NOR windrawSEN win
⚽ Goals
M. Pedersen 43'
E. Haaland 48'
E. Haaland 58'
53' I. Sarr
90' I. Sarr
norway flagNOR3–2SENsenegal flag
42%Possession58%
2.20Expected goals (xG)1.72
13Shots16
7Shots on target4
5Corners4
80%Pass accuracy88%
norway flagNorway
Form · last 3
LWW
senegal flagSenegal
Form · last 3
WLL
Head to head
NOR 1 · 0 draws · 1 SEN
2 all-time meetings · last Jun 22, 2026
Season form compared
2.7Goals per game2.7
2.3Goals conceded / game2.0
0%Clean sheets33%
67%Win rate33%

Averages over each team’s last 3 completed matches.

Norway are favoured

Norway have about a 58% chance of winning in 90 minutes.

58
16
25
NOR windrawSEN win

What's behind it

NORFactorSEN
1918Team rating
Elo — rises by beating strong teams
1842
#23World ranking
Official FIFA rank
#18
+16Form so far
How they've played this tournament
-28
+2Squad firepower
Goals in the squad vs the field
+4
0Home boost
Edge for the three host nations
0
1936Our rating
Everything above, combined
1818

Win probability from the Elo expected score on the adjusted rating, with a draw term that shrinks as the gap grows. A transparent heuristic — not betting advice.

Star men to watch

norway flagNorway
senegal flagSenegal