Kickabout
Group stage · Gillette Stadium · June 27, 2026
norway flagNorway
1–4
Full time
Francefrance flag
📌
What we said before kick-off. Our pre-match forecast is kept below for transparency — final score was NOR 1–4 FRA.
WHO FANS ARE BACKING
How the crowd called it, frozen at kick-off.
norway flagNorway22%
france flagFranceFans’ pick · 78%
Fans: NOR 22%FRA 78%
Our model backs France
The crowd agrees with the model.

France are favoured

France have about a 71% chance of winning in 90 minutes.

18
11
71
NOR windrawFRA win
⚽ Goals
T. Aasgaard 21'
Jørgen Strand Larsen 50' (P)
7' O. Dembele
20' O. Dembele
32' O. Dembele
90' D. Doue
norway flagNOR1–4FRAfrance flag
43%Possession57%
1.69Expected goals (xG)1.31
10Shots18
4Shots on target9
4Corners5
82%Pass accuracy86%
norway flagNorway
Form · last 3
LWW
france flagFrance
Form · last 3
WWW
Head to head
NOR 5 · 4 draws · 8 FRA
17 all-time meetings · last Jun 26, 2026
Season form compared
2.7Goals per game3.3
2.3Goals conceded / game0.7
0%Clean sheets33%
67%Win rate100%

Averages over each team’s last 3 completed matches.

France are favoured

France have about a 71% chance of winning in 90 minutes.

18
11
71
NOR windrawFRA win

What's behind it

NORFactorFRA
1918Team rating
Elo — rises by beating strong teams
2123
#23World ranking
Official FIFA rank
#1
+16Form so far
How they've played this tournament
+18
+2Squad firepower
Goals in the squad vs the field
-2
0Home boost
Edge for the three host nations
0
1936Our rating
Everything above, combined
2139

Win probability from the Elo expected score on the adjusted rating, with a draw term that shrinks as the gap grows. A transparent heuristic — not betting advice.

Star men to watch