Kickabout
Group stage · BC Place · June 22, 2026
new-zealand flagNew Zealand
1–3
Full time
Egyptegypt flag
📌
What we said before kick-off. Our pre-match forecast is kept below for transparency — final score was NZL 1–3 EGY.
WHO FANS ARE BACKING
How the crowd called it, frozen at kick-off.
new-zealand flagNew Zealand18%
egypt flagEgyptFans’ pick · 82%
Fans: NZL 18%EGY 82%
Our model backs Egypt
The crowd agrees with the model.

Egypt are favoured

Egypt have about a 75% chance of winning in 90 minutes.

16
10
75
NZL windrawEGY win
⚽ Goals
F. Surman 15'
58' M. Ziko
67' M. Salah
82' Trezeguet
new-zealand flagNZL1–3EGYegypt flag
44%Possession56%
1.24Expected goals (xG)1.87
11Shots19
5Shots on target7
4Corners3
80%Pass accuracy87%
new-zealand flagNew Zealand
Form · last 3
LLD
egypt flagEgypt
Form · last 3
DWD
Head to head
NZL 0 · 1 draw · 3 EGY
4 all-time meetings · last Jun 21, 2026
Season form compared
1.3Goals per game1.7
3.3Goals conceded / game1.0
0%Clean sheets0%
0%Win rate33%

Averages over each team’s last 3 completed matches.

Egypt are favoured

Egypt have about a 75% chance of winning in 90 minutes.

16
10
75
NZL windrawEGY win

What's behind it

NZLFactorEGY
1534Team rating
Elo — rises by beating strong teams
1742
#86World ranking
Official FIFA rank
#26
-21Form so far
How they've played this tournament
+2
-1Squad firepower
Goals in the squad vs the field
+3
0Home boost
Edge for the three host nations
0
1512Our rating
Everything above, combined
1747

Win probability from the Elo expected score on the adjusted rating, with a draw term that shrinks as the gap grows. A transparent heuristic — not betting advice.

Star men to watch

new-zealand flagNew Zealand
egypt flagEgypt