⚽Kickabout
⌕
Group stage · BC Place · June 27, 2026
new-zealand flagNew Zealand
1–5
Full time
Belgiumbelgium flag
📌
What we said before kick-off. Our pre-match forecast is kept below for transparency — final score was NZL 1–5 BEL.
WHO FANS ARE BACKING
How the crowd called it, frozen at kick-off.
new-zealand flagNew Zealand9%
belgium flagBelgiumFans’ pick · 91%
Fans: NZL 9%BEL 91%
Our model backs Belgium
The crowd agrees with the model.

Belgium are favoured

Belgium have about a 87% chance of winning in 90 minutes.

8
5
87
NZL windrawBEL win
⚽ Goals
E. Just 84'
21'
28' L. Trossard
50' L. Trossard
66' K. De Bruyne
86' R. Lukaku
90' A. Saelemaekers
new-zealand flagNZL1–5BELbelgium flag
45%Possession55%
0.24Expected goals (xG)3.60
6Shots35
2Shots on target10
5Corners8
85%Pass accuracy88%
new-zealand flagNew Zealand
Form · last 3
LLD
belgium flagBelgium
Form · last 3
WDD
Head to head
NZL 0 · 0 draws · 1 BEL
1 all-time meeting · last Jun 26, 2026
Season form compared
1.3Goals per game2.0
3.3Goals conceded / game0.7
0%Clean sheets33%
0%Win rate33%

Averages over each team’s last 3 completed matches.

Belgium are favoured

Belgium have about a 87% chance of winning in 90 minutes.

8
5
87
NZL windrawBEL win

What's behind it

NZLFactorBEL
1534Team rating
Elo — rises by beating strong teams
1884
#86World ranking
Official FIFA rank
#10
-21Form so far
How they've played this tournament
-12
-1Squad firepower
Goals in the squad vs the field
+20
0Home boost
Edge for the three host nations
0
1512Our rating
Everything above, combined
1892

Win probability from the Elo expected score on the adjusted rating, with a draw term that shrinks as the gap grows. A transparent heuristic — not betting advice.

Star men to watch