⚽Kickabout
⌕
Group stage · NRG Stadium · June 21, 2026
netherlands flagNetherlands
5–1
Full time
Swedensweden flag
📌
What we said before kick-off. Our pre-match forecast is kept below for transparency — final score was NED 5–1 SWE.
WHO FANS ARE BACKING
How the crowd called it, frozen at kick-off.
netherlands flagNetherlandsFans’ pick · 81%
sweden flagSweden19%
Fans: NED 81%SWE 19%
Our model backs Netherlands
The crowd agrees with the model.

Netherlands are favoured

Netherlands have about a 80% chance of winning in 90 minutes.

80
8
12
NED windrawSWE win
⚽ Goals
B. Brobbey 5'
B. Brobbey 17'
C. Gakpo 47'
C. Gakpo 54'
C. Summerville 89'
59' A. Elanga
netherlands flagNED5–1SWEsweden flag
51%Possession49%
2.61Expected goals (xG)1.01
10Shots16
7Shots on target8
2Corners5
89%Pass accuracy85%
netherlands flagNetherlands
Form · last 3
WWD
sweden flagSweden
Form · last 3
DLW
Head to head
NED 12 · 6 draws · 8 SWE
26 all-time meetings · last Jun 20, 2026
Season form compared
3.3Goals per game2.3
1.3Goals conceded / game2.3
0%Clean sheets0%
67%Win rate33%

Averages over each team’s last 3 completed matches.

Netherlands are favoured

Netherlands have about a 80% chance of winning in 90 minutes.

80
8
12
NED windrawSWE win

What's behind it

NEDFactorSWE
1980Team rating
Elo — rises by beating strong teams
1742
#7World ranking
Official FIFA rank
#36
+25Form so far
How they've played this tournament
-2
+9Squad firepower
Goals in the squad vs the field
-12
0Home boost
Edge for the three host nations
0
2014Our rating
Everything above, combined
1728

Win probability from the Elo expected score on the adjusted rating, with a draw term that shrinks as the gap grows. A transparent heuristic — not betting advice.

Star men to watch