Kickabout
Group stage · AT&T Stadium · June 15, 2026
netherlands flagNetherlands
2–2
Full time
Japanjapan flag
📌
What we said before kick-off. Our pre-match forecast is kept below for transparency — final score was NED 2–2 JPN.
WHO FANS ARE BACKING
How the crowd called it, frozen at kick-off.
netherlands flagNetherlandsFans’ pick · 72%
japan flagJapan28%
Fans: NED 72%JPN 28%
Our model backs Netherlands
The crowd agrees with the model.

Netherlands are favoured

Netherlands have about a 54% chance of winning in 90 minutes.

54
18
28
NED windrawJPN win
⚽ Goals
V. van Dijk 51'
C. Summerville 64'
57' K. Nakamura
89' D. Kamada
netherlands flagNED2–2JPNjapan flag
60%Possession40%
0.78Expected goals (xG)0.59
10Shots10
6Shots on target3
5Corners4
88%Pass accuracy84%
netherlands flagNetherlands
Form · last 3
WWD
japan flagJapan
Form · last 3
DWD
Head to head
NED 2 · 2 draws · 0 JPN
4 all-time meetings · last Jun 14, 2026
Season form compared
3.3Goals per game2.3
1.3Goals conceded / game1.0
0%Clean sheets33%
67%Win rate33%

Averages over each team’s last 3 completed matches.

Netherlands are favoured

Netherlands have about a 54% chance of winning in 90 minutes.

54
18
28
NED windrawJPN win

What's behind it

NEDFactorJPN
1980Team rating
Elo — rises by beating strong teams
1910
#7World ranking
Official FIFA rank
#17
+25Form so far
How they've played this tournament
+11
+9Squad firepower
Goals in the squad vs the field
-1
0Home boost
Edge for the three host nations
0
2014Our rating
Everything above, combined
1920

Win probability from the Elo expected score on the adjusted rating, with a draw term that shrinks as the gap grows. A transparent heuristic — not betting advice.

Star men to watch