Kickabout
Group stage · Mercedes-Benz Stadium · June 25, 2026
morocco flagMorocco
4–2
Full time
Haitihaiti flag
📌
What we said before kick-off. Our pre-match forecast is kept below for transparency — final score was MAR 4–2 HAI.
WHO FANS ARE BACKING
How the crowd called it, frozen at kick-off.
morocco flagMoroccoFans’ pick · 93%
haiti flagHaiti7%
Fans: MAR 93%HAI 7%
Our model backs Morocco
The crowd agrees with the model.

Morocco are favoured

Morocco have about a 89% chance of winning in 90 minutes.

89
4
7
MAR windrawHAI win
⚽ Goals
A. Hakimi 39'
I. Saibari 45'
S. Rahimi 78'
G. Yassine 89'
10' Bono
43' W. Isidor
morocco flagMAR4–2HAIhaiti flag
69%Possession31%
3.76Expected goals (xG)0.67
22Shots9
11Shots on target2
9Corners1
88%Pass accuracy80%
morocco flagMorocco
Form · last 3
WWD
haiti flagHaiti
Form · last 3
LLL
Head to head
MAR 1 · 0 draws · 0 HAI
1 all-time meeting · last Jun 24, 2026
Season form compared
2.0Goals per game0.7
1.0Goals conceded / game2.7
33%Clean sheets0%
67%Win rate0%

Averages over each team’s last 3 completed matches.

Morocco are favoured

Morocco have about a 89% chance of winning in 90 minutes.

89
4
7
MAR windrawHAI win

What's behind it

MARFactorHAI
1877Team rating
Elo — rises by beating strong teams
1517
#6World ranking
Official FIFA rank
#88
+19Form so far
How they've played this tournament
-34
-7Squad firepower
Goals in the squad vs the field
-1
0Home boost
Edge for the three host nations
0
1889Our rating
Everything above, combined
1482

Win probability from the Elo expected score on the adjusted rating, with a draw term that shrinks as the gap grows. A transparent heuristic — not betting advice.

Star men to watch

morocco flagMorocco
haiti flagHaiti