Kickabout
Group stage · Estadio Akron · June 19, 2026
mexico flagMexico
1–0
Full time
South Koreasouth-korea flag
📌
What we said before kick-off. Our pre-match forecast is kept below for transparency — final score was MEX 1–0 KOR.
WHO FANS ARE BACKING
How the crowd called it, frozen at kick-off.
mexico flagMexicoFans’ pick · 69%
south-korea flagSouth Korea31%
Fans: MEX 69%KOR 31%
Our model backs Mexico
The crowd agrees with the model.

Mexico are favoured

Mexico have about a 78% chance of winning in 90 minutes.

78
8
14
MEX windrawKOR win
⚽ Goals
L. Romo 50'
mexico flagMEX1–0KORsouth-korea flag
42%Possession58%
0.53Expected goals (xG)0.91
8Shots9
4Shots on target2
0Corners2
82%Pass accuracy84%
mexico flagMexico
Form · last 3
WWW
south-korea flagSouth Korea
Form · last 3
LLW
Head to head
MEX 9 · 3 draws · 3 KOR
15 all-time meetings · last Jun 18, 2026
Season form compared
2.0Goals per game0.7
0.0Goals conceded / game1.0
100%Clean sheets0%
100%Win rate33%

Averages over each team’s last 3 completed matches.

Mexico are favoured

Mexico have about a 78% chance of winning in 90 minutes.

78
8
14
MEX windrawKOR win

What's behind it

MEXFactorKOR
1912Team rating
Elo — rises by beating strong teams
1723
#9World ranking
Official FIFA rank
#31
+35Form so far
How they've played this tournament
-9
0Squad firepower
Goals in the squad vs the field
+7
+40Home boost
Edge for the three host nations
0
1987Our rating
Everything above, combined
1721

Win probability from the Elo expected score on the adjusted rating, with a draw term that shrinks as the gap grows. A transparent heuristic — not betting advice.

Star men to watch

mexico flagMexico
south-korea flagSouth Korea