Kickabout
Group stage · Estadio Banorte · June 12, 2026
mexico flagMexico
2–0
Full time
South Africasouth-africa flag
📌
What we said before kick-off. Our pre-match forecast is kept below for transparency — final score was MEX 2–0 RSA.
WHO FANS ARE BACKING
How the crowd called it, frozen at kick-off.
mexico flagMexicoFans’ pick · 88%
south-africa flagSouth Africa12%
Fans: MEX 88%RSA 12%
Our model backs Mexico
The crowd agrees with the model.

Mexico are favoured

Mexico have about a 91% chance of winning in 90 minutes.

91
4
5
MEX windrawRSA win
⚽ Goals
J. Quinones 9'
R. Jimenez 67'
mexico flagMEX2–0RSAsouth-africa flag
61%Possession39%
1.46Expected goals (xG)0.07
16Shots3
4Shots on target2
3Corners1
90%Pass accuracy81%
mexico flagMexico
Form · last 3
WWW
south-africa flagSouth Africa
Form · last 4
LWDL
Head to head
MEX 3 · 1 draw · 1 RSA
5 all-time meetings · last Jun 11, 2026
Season form compared
2.0Goals per game0.5
0.0Goals conceded / game1.0
100%Clean sheets25%
100%Win rate25%

Averages over each team’s last 3 completed matches.

Mexico are favoured

Mexico have about a 91% chance of winning in 90 minutes.

91
4
5
MEX windrawRSA win

What's behind it

MEXFactorRSA
1912Team rating
Elo — rises by beating strong teams
1559
#9World ranking
Official FIFA rank
#54
+35Form so far
How they've played this tournament
-4
0Squad firepower
Goals in the squad vs the field
-12
+40Home boost
Edge for the three host nations
0
1987Our rating
Everything above, combined
1543

Win probability from the Elo expected score on the adjusted rating, with a draw term that shrinks as the gap grows. A transparent heuristic — not betting advice.

Star men to watch

mexico flagMexico
south-africa flagSouth Africa