Kickabout
Group stage · AT&T Stadium · June 26, 2026
japan flagJapan
1–1
Full time
Swedensweden flag
📌
What we said before kick-off. Our pre-match forecast is kept below for transparency — final score was JPN 1–1 SWE.
WHO FANS ARE BACKING
How the crowd called it, frozen at kick-off.
japan flagJapanFans’ pick · 77%
sweden flagSweden23%
Fans: JPN 77%SWE 23%
Our model backs Japan
The crowd agrees with the model.

Japan are favoured

Japan have about a 69% chance of winning in 90 minutes.

69
12
19
JPN windrawSWE win
⚽ Goals
D. Maeda 56'
62' A. Elanga
japan flagJPN1–1SWEsweden flag
52%Possession48%
1.21Expected goals (xG)0.64
8Shots11
3Shots on target5
2Corners8
85%Pass accuracy79%
japan flagJapan
Form · last 3
DWD
sweden flagSweden
Form · last 3
DLW
Head to head
JPN 0 · 4 draws · 1 SWE
5 all-time meetings · last Jun 25, 2026
Season form compared
2.3Goals per game2.3
1.0Goals conceded / game2.3
33%Clean sheets0%
33%Win rate33%

Averages over each team’s last 3 completed matches.

Japan are favoured

Japan have about a 69% chance of winning in 90 minutes.

69
12
19
JPN windrawSWE win

What's behind it

JPNFactorSWE
1910Team rating
Elo — rises by beating strong teams
1742
#17World ranking
Official FIFA rank
#36
+11Form so far
How they've played this tournament
-2
-1Squad firepower
Goals in the squad vs the field
-12
0Home boost
Edge for the three host nations
0
1920Our rating
Everything above, combined
1728

Win probability from the Elo expected score on the adjusted rating, with a draw term that shrinks as the gap grows. A transparent heuristic — not betting advice.

Star men to watch