Kickabout
Group stage · Lincoln Financial Field · June 15, 2026
ivory-coast flagIvory Coast
1–0
Full time
Ecuadorecuador flag
📌
What we said before kick-off. Our pre-match forecast is kept below for transparency — final score was CIV 1–0 ECU.
WHO FANS ARE BACKING
How the crowd called it, frozen at kick-off.
ivory-coast flagIvory Coast
ecuador flagEcuador
Our model backs Ecuador

Ecuador are favoured

Ecuador have about a 63% chance of winning in 90 minutes.

23
14
63
CIV windrawECU win
⚽ Goals
A. Diallo 90'
ivory-coast flagCIV1–0ECUecuador flag
48%Possession52%
1.52Expected goals (xG)1.01
15Shots12
4Shots on target1
3Corners5
84%Pass accuracy85%
ivory-coast flagIvory Coast
Form · last 3
WLW
ecuador flagEcuador
Form · last 3
WDL
Head to head
CIV 1 · 0 draws · 0 ECU
1 all-time meeting · last Jun 14, 2026
Season form compared
1.3Goals per game0.7
0.7Goals conceded / game0.7
67%Clean sheets33%
67%Win rate33%

Averages over each team’s last 3 completed matches.

Ecuador are favoured

Ecuador have about a 63% chance of winning in 90 minutes.

23
14
63
CIV windrawECU win

What's behind it

CIVFactorECU
1743Team rating
Elo — rises by beating strong teams
1902
#30World ranking
Official FIFA rank
#24
+12Form so far
How they've played this tournament
-2
-8Squad firepower
Goals in the squad vs the field
-5
0Home boost
Edge for the three host nations
0
1747Our rating
Everything above, combined
1895

Win probability from the Elo expected score on the adjusted rating, with a draw term that shrinks as the gap grows. A transparent heuristic — not betting advice.

Star men to watch

ivory-coast flagIvory Coast
ecuador flagEcuador