⚽Kickabout
Group stage · Gillette Stadium · June 17, 2026
iraq flagIraq
1–4
Full time
Norwaynorway flag
📌
What we said before kick-off. Our pre-match forecast is kept below for transparency — final score was IRQ 1–4 NOR.
WHO FANS ARE BACKING
How the crowd called it, frozen at kick-off.
iraq flagIraq11%
norway flagNorwayFans’ pick · 89%
Fans: IRQ 11%NOR 89%
Our model backs Norway
The crowd agrees with the model.

Norway are favoured

Norway have about a 89% chance of winning in 90 minutes.

6
4
89
IRQ windrawNOR win
⚽ Goals
A. Hussein 39'
29' E. Haaland
43' E. Haaland
76' L. Ostigard
90' A. Hussein
iraq flagIRQ1–4NORnorway flag
39%Possession61%
0.80Expected goals (xG)2.52
11Shots12
1Shots on target5
2Corners5
81%Pass accuracy89%
iraq flagIraq
Form · last 3
LLL
norway flagNorway
Form · last 3
LWW
Head to head
IRQ 0 · 0 draws · 1 NOR
1 all-time meeting · last Jun 16, 2026
Season form compared
0.3Goals per game2.7
4.0Goals conceded / game2.3
0%Clean sheets0%
0%Win rate67%

Averages over each team’s last 3 completed matches.

Norway are favoured

Norway have about a 89% chance of winning in 90 minutes.

6
4
89
IRQ windrawNOR win

What's behind it

IRQFactorNOR
1561Team rating
Elo — rises by beating strong teams
1918
#63World ranking
Official FIFA rank
#23
-34Form so far
How they've played this tournament
+16
-6Squad firepower
Goals in the squad vs the field
+2
0Home boost
Edge for the three host nations
0
1521Our rating
Everything above, combined
1936

Win probability from the Elo expected score on the adjusted rating, with a draw term that shrinks as the gap grows. A transparent heuristic — not betting advice.

Star men to watch

iraq flagIraq
norway flagNorway