Kickabout
Group stage · SoFi Stadium · June 16, 2026
iran flagIran
2–2
Full time
New Zealandnew-zealand flag
📌
What we said before kick-off. Our pre-match forecast is kept below for transparency — final score was IRN 2–2 NZL.
WHO FANS ARE BACKING
How the crowd called it, frozen at kick-off.
iran flagIranFans’ pick · 75%
new-zealand flagNew Zealand25%
Fans: IRN 75%NZL 25%
Our model backs Iran
The crowd agrees with the model.

Iran are favoured

Iran have about a 76% chance of winning in 90 minutes.

76
9
15
IRN windrawNZL win
⚽ Goals
R. Rezaeian 32'
M. Mohebi 64'
7' E. Just
54' E. Just
iran flagIRN2–2NZLnew-zealand flag
49%Possession51%
1.50Expected goals (xG)1.24
17Shots14
4Shots on target8
4Corners1
77%Pass accuracy84%
iran flagIran
Form · last 3
DDD
new-zealand flagNew Zealand
Form · last 3
LLD
Head to head
IRN 1 · 2 draws · 0 NZL
3 all-time meetings · last Jun 15, 2026
Season form compared
1.0Goals per game1.3
1.0Goals conceded / game3.3
33%Clean sheets0%
0%Win rate0%

Averages over each team’s last 3 completed matches.

Iran are favoured

Iran have about a 76% chance of winning in 90 minutes.

76
9
15
IRN windrawNZL win

What's behind it

IRNFactorNZL
1764Team rating
Elo — rises by beating strong teams
1534
#21World ranking
Official FIFA rank
#86
-12Form so far
How they've played this tournament
-21
+9Squad firepower
Goals in the squad vs the field
-1
0Home boost
Edge for the three host nations
0
1761Our rating
Everything above, combined
1512

Win probability from the Elo expected score on the adjusted rating, with a draw term that shrinks as the gap grows. A transparent heuristic — not betting advice.

Star men to watch

iran flagIran
new-zealand flagNew Zealand