Kickabout
Group stage · MetLife Stadium · June 17, 2026
france flagFrance
3–1
Full time
Senegalsenegal flag
📌
What we said before kick-off. Our pre-match forecast is kept below for transparency — final score was FRA 3–1 SEN.
WHO FANS ARE BACKING
How the crowd called it, frozen at kick-off.
france flagFranceFans’ pick · 87%
senegal flagSenegal13%
Fans: FRA 87%SEN 13%
Our model backs France
The crowd agrees with the model.

France are favoured

France have about a 83% chance of winning in 90 minutes.

83
7
10
FRA windrawSEN win
⚽ Goals
K. Mbappe 66'
B. Barcola 82'
K. Mbappe 90'
90' I. Mbaye
france flagFRA3–1SENsenegal flag
53%Possession47%
1.79Expected goals (xG)0.53
11Shots6
8Shots on target2
6Corners4
88%Pass accuracy86%
france flagFrance
Form · last 3
WWW
senegal flagSenegal
Form · last 3
WLL
Head to head
FRA 1 · 0 draws · 2 SEN
3 all-time meetings · last Jun 16, 2026
Season form compared
3.3Goals per game2.7
0.7Goals conceded / game2.0
33%Clean sheets33%
100%Win rate33%

Averages over each team’s last 3 completed matches.

France are favoured

France have about a 83% chance of winning in 90 minutes.

83
7
10
FRA windrawSEN win

What's behind it

FRAFactorSEN
2123Team rating
Elo — rises by beating strong teams
1842
#1World ranking
Official FIFA rank
#18
+18Form so far
How they've played this tournament
-28
-2Squad firepower
Goals in the squad vs the field
+4
0Home boost
Edge for the three host nations
0
2139Our rating
Everything above, combined
1818

Win probability from the Elo expected score on the adjusted rating, with a draw term that shrinks as the gap grows. A transparent heuristic — not betting advice.

Star men to watch