⚽Kickabout
⌕
Group stage · Lincoln Financial Field · June 23, 2026
france flagFrance
3–0
Full time
Iraqiraq flag
📌
What we said before kick-off. Our pre-match forecast is kept below for transparency — final score was FRA 3–0 IRQ.
WHO FANS ARE BACKING
How the crowd called it, frozen at kick-off.
france flagFranceFans’ pick · 95%
iraq flagIraq5%
Fans: FRA 95%IRQ 5%
Our model backs France
The crowd agrees with the model.

France are favoured

France have about a 96% chance of winning in 90 minutes.

96
2
2
FRA windrawIRQ win
⚽ Goals
K. Mbappe 14'
K. Mbappe 54'
O. Dembele 66'
france flagFRA3–0IRQiraq flag
56%Possession44%
2.67Expected goals (xG)0.63
19Shots4
5Shots on target0
4Corners2
90%Pass accuracy86%
france flagFrance
Form · last 3
WWW
iraq flagIraq
Form · last 3
LLL
Head to head
FRA 1 · 0 draws · 0 IRQ
1 all-time meeting · last Jun 22, 2026
Season form compared
3.3Goals per game0.3
0.7Goals conceded / game4.0
33%Clean sheets0%
100%Win rate0%

Averages over each team’s last 3 completed matches.

France are favoured

France have about a 96% chance of winning in 90 minutes.

96
2
2
FRA windrawIRQ win

What's behind it

FRAFactorIRQ
2123Team rating
Elo — rises by beating strong teams
1561
#1World ranking
Official FIFA rank
#63
+18Form so far
How they've played this tournament
-34
-2Squad firepower
Goals in the squad vs the field
-6
0Home boost
Edge for the three host nations
0
2139Our rating
Everything above, combined
1521

Win probability from the Elo expected score on the adjusted rating, with a draw term that shrinks as the gap grows. A transparent heuristic — not betting advice.

Star men to watch