⚽Kickabout
⌕
Group stage · AT&T Stadium · June 18, 2026
england flagEngland
4–2
Full time
Croatiacroatia flag
📌
What we said before kick-off. Our pre-match forecast is kept below for transparency — final score was ENG 4–2 CRO.
WHO FANS ARE BACKING
How the crowd called it, frozen at kick-off.
england flagEnglandFans’ pick · 77%
croatia flagCroatia23%
Fans: ENG 77%CRO 23%
Our model backs England
The crowd agrees with the model.

England are favoured

England have about a 62% chance of winning in 90 minutes.

62
15
23
ENG windrawCRO win
⚽ Goals
H. Kane 12' (P)
H. Kane 42'
J. Bellingham 47'
M. Rashford 85'
36' M. Baturina
45' P. Musa
england flagENG4–2CROcroatia flag
52%Possession48%
3.20Expected goals (xG)0.70
22Shots10
11Shots on target5
8Corners2
86%Pass accuracy86%
england flagEngland
Form · last 3
WDW
croatia flagCroatia
Form · last 3
WWL
Head to head
ENG 7 · 2 draws · 3 CRO
12 all-time meetings · last Jun 17, 2026
Season form compared
2.0Goals per game1.7
0.7Goals conceded / game1.7
67%Clean sheets33%
67%Win rate67%

Averages over each team’s last 3 completed matches.

England are favoured

England have about a 62% chance of winning in 90 minutes.

62
15
23
ENG windrawCRO win

What's behind it

ENGFactorCRO
2038Team rating
Elo — rises by beating strong teams
1905
#4World ranking
Official FIFA rank
#13
+2Form so far
How they've played this tournament
-9
+8Squad firepower
Goals in the squad vs the field
+9
0Home boost
Edge for the three host nations
0
2048Our rating
Everything above, combined
1905

Win probability from the Elo expected score on the adjusted rating, with a draw term that shrinks as the gap grows. A transparent heuristic — not betting advice.

Star men to watch