⚽Kickabout
⌕
Group stage · MetLife Stadium · June 26, 2026
ecuador flagEcuador
2–1
Full time
Germanygermany flag
📌
What we said before kick-off. Our pre-match forecast is kept below for transparency — final score was ECU 2–1 GER.
WHO FANS ARE BACKING
How the crowd called it, frozen at kick-off.
ecuador flagEcuador12%
germany flagGermanyFans’ pick · 88%
Fans: ECU 12%GER 88%
Our model backs Germany
The crowd agrees with the model.

Germany are favoured

Germany have about a 44% chance of winning in 90 minutes.

33
23
44
ECU windrawGER win
⚽ Goals
N. Angulo 9'
G. Plata 77'
2' L. Sane
47'
ecuador flagECU2–1GERgermany flag
39%Possession61%
1.27Expected goals (xG)0.65
7Shots11
3Shots on target3
3Corners2
83%Pass accuracy87%
ecuador flagEcuador
Form · last 3
WDL
germany flagGermany
Form · last 3
LWW
Head to head
ECU 1 · 0 draws · 2 GER
3 all-time meetings · last Jun 25, 2026
Season form compared
0.7Goals per game3.3
0.7Goals conceded / game1.3
33%Clean sheets0%
33%Win rate67%

Averages over each team’s last 3 completed matches.

Germany are favoured

Germany have about a 44% chance of winning in 90 minutes.

33
23
44
ECU windrawGER win

What's behind it

ECUFactorGER
1902Team rating
Elo — rises by beating strong teams
1916
#24World ranking
Official FIFA rank
#12
-2Form so far
How they've played this tournament
+20
-5Squad firepower
Goals in the squad vs the field
-2
0Home boost
Edge for the three host nations
0
1895Our rating
Everything above, combined
1934

Win probability from the Elo expected score on the adjusted rating, with a draw term that shrinks as the gap grows. A transparent heuristic — not betting advice.

Star men to watch