Kickabout
Group stage · Arrowhead Stadium · June 21, 2026
ecuador flagEcuador
0–0
Full time
Curacaocuracao flag
📌
What we said before kick-off. Our pre-match forecast is kept below for transparency — final score was ECU 0–0 CUW.
WHO FANS ARE BACKING
How the crowd called it, frozen at kick-off.
ecuador flagEcuadorFans’ pick · 92%
curacao flagCuracao8%
Fans: ECU 92%CUW 8%
Our model backs Ecuador
The crowd agrees with the model.

Ecuador are favoured

Ecuador have about a 93% chance of winning in 90 minutes.

93
3
4
ECU windrawCUW win
ecuador flagECU0–0CUWcuracao flag
75%Possession25%
2.84Expected goals (xG)0.50
27Shots10
15Shots on target3
9Corners0
90%Pass accuracy70%
ecuador flagEcuador
Form · last 3
WDL
curacao flagCuracao
Form · last 3
LDL
Head to head
ECU 0 · 1 draw · 0 CUW
1 all-time meeting · last Jun 20, 2026
Season form compared
0.7Goals per game0.3
0.7Goals conceded / game3.0
33%Clean sheets33%
33%Win rate0%

Averages over each team’s last 3 completed matches.

Ecuador are favoured

Ecuador have about a 93% chance of winning in 90 minutes.

93
3
4
ECU windrawCUW win

What's behind it

ECUFactorCUW
1902Team rating
Elo — rises by beating strong teams
1438
#24World ranking
Official FIFA rank
#82
-2Form so far
How they've played this tournament
-33
-5Squad firepower
Goals in the squad vs the field
-11
0Home boost
Edge for the three host nations
0
1895Our rating
Everything above, combined
1394

Win probability from the Elo expected score on the adjusted rating, with a draw term that shrinks as the gap grows. A transparent heuristic — not betting advice.

Star men to watch

ecuador flagEcuador
curacao flagCuracao