Kickabout
Round of 32 · NRG Stadium · June 30, 2026
WHO FANS ARE BACKING
The crowd’s call — and how our model compares.
brazil flagBrazilFans’ pick · 79%
japan flagJapan21%
Fans: BRA 79%JPN 21%
Our model backs Brazil
The crowd agrees with the model.

Brazil are favoured

Brazil have about a 59% chance of winning in 90 minutes.

59
16
25
BRA windrawJPN win

Bookmaker odds

Compare the books — best price for each result is highlighted.

BookmakerBRADrawJPN
10Bet1.733.455.00
1xBet1.793.785.20
Bet3651.703.705.25
Betano1.803.655.20
Betfair1.733.705.00
BetVictor1.703.605.00
Dafabet1.703.855.20
Marathonbet1.783.755.05
Pinnacle1.783.715.24
SBO1.653.765.20
Unibet1.703.755.20
William Hill1.733.504.80

Odds via API-Football. Shown for information — not betting advice.

No confirmed XI yet — most likely teams based on recent selection.

brazil flag
Brazil
4-3-3
Most likely XI
Japan
3-5-2
japan flag
1Alisson13Danilo4Marquinhos3Magalhães16Santos8Guimarães5Casemiro20Paquetá26Rayan9Cunha7Júnior1Suzuki3Taniguchi22Tomiyasu21Itō10Doan15Kamada24Sano7Tanaka13Nakamura18Ueda11Maeda
brazil flagBrazil
Form · last 3
WWD
japan flagJapan
Form · last 3
DWD
Head to head
BRA 11 · 2 draws · 1 JPN
14 all-time meetings · last Oct 14, 2025
Season form compared
2.3Goals per game2.3
0.3Goals conceded / game1.0
67%Clean sheets33%
67%Win rate33%

Averages over each team’s last 3 completed matches.

Brazil are favoured

Brazil have about a 59% chance of winning in 90 minutes.

59
16
25
BRA windrawJPN win

What's behind it

BRAFactorJPN
2009Team rating
Elo — rises by beating strong teams
1910
#5World ranking
Official FIFA rank
#17
+25Form so far
How they've played this tournament
+11
+9Squad firepower
Goals in the squad vs the field
-1
0Home boost
Edge for the three host nations
0
2043Our rating
Everything above, combined
1920

Win probability from the Elo expected score on the adjusted rating, with a draw term that shrinks as the gap grows. A transparent heuristic — not betting advice.

Star men to watch