Kickabout
Round of 32 · Estadio Banorte · July 1, 2026
WHO DO YOU THINK WINS?
Tap your pick — see how you compare.
Fans: MEX 76%ECU 24%
Our model backs Mexico
Tap a side to see if you agree.

Mexico are favoured

Mexico have about a 54% chance of winning in 90 minutes.

54
18
28
MEX windrawECU win

Bookmaker odds

Compare the books — best price for each result is highlighted.

BookmakerMEXDrawECU
10Bet2.182.863.80
1xBet2.233.124.06
Bet3652.202.903.90
Betano2.272.924.10
Betfair2.202.884.00
BetVictor2.153.003.80
Dafabet2.213.103.80
Marathonbet2.193.063.98
Pinnacle2.242.914.11
SBO2.173.023.70
Unibet2.182.854.10
William Hill2.152.903.80

Odds via API-Football. Shown for information — not betting advice.

No confirmed XI yet — most likely teams based on recent selection.

mexico flag
Mexico
4-3-3
Most likely XI
Ecuador
4-4-2
ecuador flag
1Rangel2Sánchez4Álvarez5Vásquez23Gallardo7Romo6Lira26Gutiérrez25Alvarado9Jiménez16Quiñones1Galíndez21Franco4Ordóñez6Pacho3Hincapié9Yeboah15Vite23Caicedo20Angulo19Plata13Valencia
mexico flagMexico
Form · last 3
WWW
ecuador flagEcuador
Form · last 3
WDL
Head to head
MEX 14 · 8 draws · 4 ECU
26 all-time meetings · last Oct 14, 2025
Season form compared
2.0Goals per game0.7
0.0Goals conceded / game0.7
100%Clean sheets33%
100%Win rate33%

Averages over each team’s last 3 completed matches.

Mexico are favoured

Mexico have about a 54% chance of winning in 90 minutes.

54
18
28
MEX windrawECU win

What's behind it

MEXFactorECU
1912Team rating
Elo — rises by beating strong teams
1902
#9World ranking
Official FIFA rank
#24
+35Form so far
How they've played this tournament
-2
0Squad firepower
Goals in the squad vs the field
-5
+40Home boost
Edge for the three host nations
0
1987Our rating
Everything above, combined
1895

Win probability from the Elo expected score on the adjusted rating, with a draw term that shrinks as the gap grows. A transparent heuristic — not betting advice.

Star men to watch